MNDY — long thesis

Confidence: low · Status: active

Thesis

Monday.com delivered a record Q1 revenue beat with analysts highlighting strong execution. The company represents the SaaS recovery thesis where selective companies with strong growth metrics can outperform despite broader macro headwinds. As a work management platform with both enterprise and SMB exposure, MNDY has demonstrated resilient revenue growth and improving profitability. While the hot CPI environment is a headwind for tech broadly, MNDY's strong Q1 beat suggests company-specific momentum can overcome sector-level selling. This is a watch-and-wait thesis — enter only on a meaningful pullback from post-earnings levels that creates a better risk/reward setup.

Triggers

Entry: Enter on a 10-15% pullback from post-earnings highs. If the stock consolidates at current levels for 5+ sessions with declining volatility, consider a small position (~1% of portfolio). Do not chase the post-earnings gap-up.

Exit: Take profits at 20% gain from entry. Exit if next quarterly earnings show revenue growth deceleration below 20% or if enterprise customer growth reverses. Trim if position exceeds 2% of portfolio.

Invalidation: Revenue growth decelerates below 20% for two consecutive quarters; stock breaks below pre-earnings levels on fundamental concerns; broader SaaS sector enters sustained downturn lasting 4+ weeks; macro headwinds from inflation accelerate causing tech multiple compression below 30x forward P/E.

Cited evidence

News

Macro