AMZN — long thesis
Thesis
Amazon remains a core long-term holding based on AWS cloud leadership, AI chip backlog, logistics/advertising growth, and Amazon Now 30-minute delivery expansion. The company reported strong Q1 earnings with a triple-play beat. AWS and AI infrastructure spending are creating long-duration competitive advantages. TD Cowen maintains a $350 PT. The stock trades at ~32x P/E, which is elevated under the current rate-shock regime (Rule 44), but AWS and advertising margins should continue to expand. Position is small and well below the 10% single-name cap. The macro headwind from hot CPI (3.8%) and consumer spending pressure from falling real wages warrants caution on new additions but does not invalidate the core thesis.
Triggers
Entry: Already held — adopted into thesis management
Exit: Take profits at $300-310 zone (near analyst consensus mid-range). Exit if AWS growth decelerates below 25% YoY for two consecutive quarters. Trim if position exceeds 8% of portfolio. Consider trimming if next earnings show e-commerce margin compression from 30-minute delivery capex.
Invalidation: AWS revenue growth decelerating below 25% YoY for two consecutive quarters; e-commerce margins compress materially due to delivery capex with no offsetting revenue growth; stock breaks below $230 on fundamental deterioration; macro regime worsens (CPI above 4.5%) causing sustained multiple compression on growth names.
Cited evidence
Macro
- 'Trump to announce tariff truce extension, aircraft purchases from Boeing in China, traders predict' - CNBC