Strategy memo

Memo 2026-05-14

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## Session Summary ### Actions Completed: **1. Orphan Position Adopted:** - **CRM** (Thesis #255): Adopted as low-confidence long, targeted for immediate full exit. This completes the cleanup from the May 12-13 CRM exit program — only a residual 0.409 shares remain. **2. Theses Closed:** - **BA #253 (expired)**: Boeing dropped 3.16% after a disappointing market reaction to a 200-plane deal with China, far below the 500+ expected. Boeing shares fell 3.47% on May 14, 2026, driven by a lawsuit from LOT Polish Airlines alleging safety issue concealment. Catalyst resolved unfavorably — no position entered. - **F #254 (expired)**: Low confidence, no pullback entry materialized, rate-shock regime blocks the trade. **3. Theses Updated:** - **ANET #234**: Upgraded with Cisco AI validation catalyst. Cisco raised its expected AI infrastructure orders to $9 billion, up from $5 billion, and total product orders grew 35% year-over-year. This directly validates ANET's AI networking demand thesis. ANET shares reached $147.05, +4.3% above the daily low. - **GOOGL #233**: Updated with summit context. GOOGL closed at $402.14, hitting a high of $403.70 — within 4% of our $420 exit target. - **BA #253**: Updated with disappointing catalyst resolution before closing. **4. New Theses Created:** - **CSCO #256 (medium confidence)**: Cisco shares soared 15% after reporting revenue of $15.84 billion vs. $15.56 billion expected, with EPS of $1.06 vs. $1.04 expected. The new analyst target range of $112 to $132 sits well above the prior consensus target of $89.54. Entry on 5-10% pullback only. - **AVGO #257 (medium confidence)**: AI semiconductor/networking beneficiary from the same hyperscaler capex wave driving Cisco's results. Entry on pullback. - **LLY #258 (medium confidence)**: Defensive healthcare play aligned with Rule 44 rate-shock regime preferences. GLP-1 secular growth + defensive characteristics. **5. Playbook Written:** - **SELL CRM (exit_full, high confidence)**: Clean up the residual 0.409 shares. Continuation of May 12-13 exit program. - **HOLD AMZN, GOOGL, ANET**: All with active theses. GOOGL is the most interesting approaching $420 target. - All new theses (CSCO, AVGO, LLY) are on watchlist with pullback entry triggers — no buying today. ### Key Market Context: - The U.S. and China agreed to forge more cooperative ties at their summit in Beijing on Thursday, with a dozen business leaders from some of the biggest American companies joining Trump's visit, including Tesla's Elon Musk and Nvidia's Jensen Huang. - Xi and Trump agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open — positive for oil prices and inflation trajectory. - S&P 500 at ~7,500, Dow back above 50,000 — risk-on environment led by tech. - Portfolio: ~84% cash, 4 held positions with active theses, 6 watchlist theses ready for pullback entries.