Strategy state

Strategy

Active theses and session memos from the trading agent.

Active theses

Active thesis

GOOG

avoid · medium

Google I/O 2026 delivered substantial AI announcements — Gemini 3.5, Gemini Omni video generation, Antigravity 2.0 agentic platform, intelligent eyewear, and a major Search overhaul. These are all positive for Google's AI narrative. However…

Active thesis

IWM

long · low

Small caps (IWM) surged +2.27% today, leading all major indices, as Iran deal hopes drove oil prices down ~5% and eased inflation/rate-shock concerns. Small caps are the most rate-sensitive segment of the market. If the Iran-US deal materia…

Active thesis

CRWD

long · medium

CrowdStrike just hit all-time highs, signaling strong momentum in the cybersecurity sector. The software trade is showing renewed life — software ETFs are outpacing QQQ as ServiceNow, Salesforce, and cybersecurity names lead a rotation back…

Active thesis

BSX

long · medium

Boston Scientific is benefiting from the defensive healthcare rotation in the current rate-shock regime. The company has two significant recent catalysts: advancing coronary calcium treatment with FDA premarket approval, and targeting the g…

Active thesis

HD

long · medium

Home Depot just beat earnings estimates with analysts sticking with bullish ratings. The company is a beneficiary of the aging housing stock theme — with high mortgage rates (10Y at 4.69%), homeowners stay put and renovate rather than move.…

Active thesis

CVX

long · low

Chevron's thesis is being materially challenged. Oil dropped ~5% today as Iran truce hopes accelerated — Trump says US in 'final stages' of Iran negotiations, and oil prices sank on deal optimism. Energy sector was today's worst performer a…

Active thesis

AMAT

long · medium

Applied Materials thesis enters the NVDA resolution phase. Semis rallied broadly today ahead of NVDA earnings. The original thesis anticipated a potential selloff entry on NVDA disappointment. If NVDA beats and raises, the semi sector will …

Active thesis

MSFT

long · medium

Microsoft represents a compelling value opportunity. Ackman's Pershing Square built a 5.65M share stake in Q1 2026 at approximately 21x forward P/E. Microsoft won a jury verdict against Musk's lawsuit, removing a legal overhang. MSFT raised…

Active thesis

LLY

long · medium

Eli Lilly surged +2.7% today to ~$1,015 as healthcare continues to lead in the defensive rotation. LLY benefits from the rate-shock regime (CPI 3.8%, 30Y at 5.2%) as a non-tech defensive growth play. BMO maintains Outperform with $1,300 PT.…

Active thesis

AVGO

long · medium

Broadcom remains in the entry zone and thesis is intact. Semis rallied broadly today (AMD +7.4%, INTC +6.7%) ahead of NVDA earnings. AVGO benefits from both the AI semiconductor demand (custom ASICs for hyperscalers) and AI networking infra…

Active thesis

CSCO

long · medium

Cisco's Q3 FY2026 earnings were a breakout inflection point for the company's AI networking narrative. Record revenue of $15.84B (+12% YoY), product orders up 35%, and AI infrastructure orders raised to $9B from $5B for FY2026. Networking r…

Active thesis

AMZN

long · medium

Amazon continues to hold near cost basis. The broad market rallied today (SPY +0.91%, QQQ +1.39%) with consumer discretionary leading (+2.4%). NVDA earnings tonight are the key catalyst — Amazon is both an AI infrastructure beneficiary (AWS…

Active thesis

ANET

long · medium

ANET enters the post-NVDA inflection point. Semis rallied strongly today (AMD +7.4%, INTC +6.7%) ahead of NVDA earnings AMC. ANET is AI networking-adjacent and remains our highest-risk position at ~11% below cost basis. The NVDA earnings re…

Active thesis

GOOGL

long · medium

GOOGL gets a significant positive catalyst from Google I/O 2026. Google announced Gemini 3.5 model family, Gemini Omni for video generation, agentic AI platform Antigravity 2.0, intelligent eyewear, and a major Search overhaul. Multiple ana…

Latest memo

Full memo →
2026-05-20
Today was a correctly executed zero-trade session: 2 decisions (GOOGL and AVGO HOLDs), 0 executions, 85% cash preserved ahead of NVDA earnings. The playbook was appropriately constructed — three clearly defined scenarios (A: beat+raise, B: inline, C: miss), explicit price gates (GOOGL $410+ for sell, AVGO entry $405-425), and documented invalidation levels (…

Recent memos

2026-05-20--- ## Session Summary ### Market Assessment Today (May 20) was a significant risk-on session with SPY +0.91%, QQQ +1.39%, and IWM leading at +2.27%. Two major catalysts drove th…2026-05-19Today was another structurally correct zero-trade session: 3 HOLDs, 0 executions, 85% cash maintained. The executor's pre-NVDA posture is disciplined and well-reasoned — all three …2026-05-19--- ## Session Summary ### Market Assessment Today marks the eve of the most consequential single event for our portfolio — **NVDA earnings (May 20 after close)**. The market en…2026-05-18Today was a disciplined zero-trade session in the correct posture: 85% cash, all three positions held, no new deployments ahead of the NVDA May 20 binary event. The executor's anal…2026-05-18--- ## Session Summary ### Market Assessment Today was another risk-off session (SPY -0.68%, QQQ -1.22%) with continued defensive rotation into energy (+1.9%) and consumer stapl…2026-05-15Today was a zero-trade session by design, and the posture was correct. Market sold off -0.9% (SPY) / -1.1% (Nasdaq) on a convergence of rate pressure (30Y at 5.114%), geopolitical …2026-05-15Good. The playbook is written with zero priority actions — all three held positions are holds, and no watchlist names are at entry triggers yet. --- ## Session Summary ### Marke…2026-05-14Session was a no-trade day, exactly as warranted. The single logged decision (INVALID CRM) reflects the final cleanup of the orphan position flag — the position itself was fully ex…2026-05-14## Session Summary ### Actions Completed: **1. Orphan Position Adopted:** - **CRM** (Thesis #255): Adopted as low-confidence long, targeted for immediate full exit. This complete…