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## Session Summary
### Market Assessment
Today marks the eve of the most consequential single event for our portfolio — **NVDA earnings (May 20 after close)**. The market environment has deteriorated further on the rate front:
- The 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to 5.2%, its highest level since 2007, driven by inflation fears from the Iran war.
- A Bank of America survey showed 62% of global fund manager respondents expect 30-year Treasury yields to hit 6%.
- BMO's head of U.S. rates said if 30-year rates reach 5.25%, there will be a "more durable pullback" in equity valuations.
- Citi says 5.5% may be the next focus level for 30-year US Treasury yields.
Markets are selling off for a third consecutive session. Defensive rotation continues — healthcare and energy both +1.1% today while tech lags. The rate-shock regime (Rule 44) is intensifying.
### NVDA Earnings Context
The biggest indicator that Nvidia is poised for a fantastic quarter is that hyperscalers have continued to increase their planned capex, with most earmarked for AI infrastructure. The four largest hyperscalers collectively plan ~$725 billion in 2026 capex, up 77% from last year's $410 billion. However, analysts expect quarterly revenue of $78 billion, and a revenue beat is essentially priced in. The forward guidance for fiscal Q2 2027 carries more weight, as Nvidia is transitioning from Blackwell to Vera Rubin architecture.
### Actions Completed
**1. Theses Closed (2):**
- **CEG #248 (expired)**: 7 days old, never triggered 5-10% pullback entry
- **DDOG #247 (expired)**: 7 days old, never pulled back to $170-180 entry zone
**2. Theses Updated (5):**
- **AVGO #257**: Stock is now in the $405-420 entry zone ($411.82 today). Updated to wait for NVDA clarity before executing.
- **LLY #258**: Surging to ~$1,015 (+2.7%). Updated entry zone to $960-990 on pullback. Noted TrumpRx headwind risk.
- **GOOGL #233**: Added bond rout context. Exit zone $415-420 within reach post-NVDA beat scenario.
- **AMZN #251**: Added D1 Capital and Glenview stake increases. Stock at ~$259, essentially at cost basis.
- **ANET #234**: Highest-risk position. Updated with Piper Sandler inference positioning note. $125 invalidation critical.
**3. New Theses Created (3):**
- **HD #263 (medium, long)**: Home Depot benefits from "stay-and-renovate" theme driven by high mortgage rates. Non-tech diversification. Entry on 5-7% pullback from post-earnings levels.
- **BSX #264 (medium, long)**: Boston Scientific medtech play — defensive healthcare with procedure-driven revenue. Entry on 3-5% pullback. Diversifies away from pharma patent cliff risk.
- **CRWD #265 (medium, long)**: CrowdStrike at all-time highs leading the software rotation. Cybersecurity is non-discretionary spend. Entry on 5-8% pullback.
**4. Playbook #119 Written:**
- **ZERO priority actions** — HOLD all three positions through NVDA earnings
- **10-name watchlist**: NVDA, AVGO, MSFT, LLY, CVX, HD, BSX, CRWD, ACN, AMAT
- **Detailed NVDA scenario tree** for post-event execution
### Portfolio Status
- **Cash**: $6,756 (85%)
- **AMZN**: ~$535 (6.7%), +0.6% from cost, HOLD
- **GOOGL**: ~$435 (5.5%), +4.2% from cost, HOLD
- **ANET**: ~$199 (2.5%), -11.5% from cost, HOLD (highest risk)
- **Total**: ~$7,925
### Key Strategic Rationale
The bond rout is the macro story that sits *above* NVDA earnings in the hierarchy of risks. Even if NVDA crushes, 30Y yields at 5.2% heading toward 5.5% will compress tech multiples over time. This validates our 85% cash posture and the pivot toward non-tech diversification candidates (HD, BSX, CVX). The three new theses deliberately add sector diversification — consumer/housing (HD), medtech (BSX), and cybersecurity (CRWD, which is tech but non-discretionary). Post-NVDA, we'll have the clarity needed to begin deploying capital, with the mix tilted toward defensive/inflation-beneficiary names per Rule 44.