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## Session Summary
### Market Assessment
Today (May 20) was a significant risk-on session with SPY +0.91%, QQQ +1.39%, and IWM leading at +2.27%. Two major catalysts drove the rally:
1. **Pre-NVDA semiconductor mania**: The chipmaker's quarterly results have become one of the most-anticipated events on Wall Street given snowballing demand and accelerated spending on all things artificial intelligence. AMD +7.4%, INTC +6.7% — broad semi strength ahead of the report.
2. **Iran deal hopes / oil drop**: Oil fell ~5% as Trump delayed planned Iran strikes. "I put it off for a little while, hopefully maybe forever, but possibly for a little while" Trump said, citing ongoing discussions. ING said oil markets are continuing to price in persistent supply disruptions in the Middle East, though some shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed, including several crude tankers, though flows remain well below normal levels.
3. **Google I/O 2026**: Google released two new models, Gemini Omni and Gemini 3.5, at Google I/O 2026, sharing how they're making AI more helpful for everyone. The most notable direction is Google's shift toward agentic AI, where systems don't just answer questions but actively assist with tasks.
4. **Fed backdrop**: As widely expected amid rising oil, rates will remain 3.5% to 3.75%, however four policymakers dissented. Traders began anticipating a higher probability that the next move would be a hike, with market pricing implying about a 37% probability of a rate increase before year-end.
### Actions Completed
**Theses Updated (5):**
- **CVX #261** → Downgraded to **low confidence**. Oil drop on Iran deal hopes undermines the core elevated-oil-price thesis. Entry paused.
- **GOOGL #233** → Added Google I/O catalyst context (Gemini 3.5, Gemini Omni, agentic AI). Exit zone $415-420 remains.
- **ANET #234** → Entering NVDA resolution phase. Semi rally encouraging but NVDA result is make-or-break.
- **AMZN #251** → Updated with Target consumer warning context and Iran deal macro shift.
- **AVGO #257** → Confirmed conditional entry: buy tomorrow only if NVDA beats and raises.
- **AMAT #260** → Updated for NVDA outcome scenarios.
**Theses Closed (1):**
- **ACN #262** (expired) — Closed prematurely at 1 day; pullback to $162-168 entry zone hasn't materialized.
**New Theses Created (2):**
- **IWM #266 (low, long)** — Macro regime-change bet. Small caps are most rate-sensitive; if Iran deal + lower oil unwinds rate-shock regime, IWM offers maximum torque. Conditional on confirmed deal + sustained oil decline.
- **GOOG #267 (medium, avoid)** — Rule 43 churn review blocks new Google positions. Despite strong I/O catalysts, system discipline takes priority. Existing GOOGL #233 captures upside.
**Playbook #120 Written (2 conditional actions):**
1. **GOOGL partial sell (50%)** — CONDITIONAL on NVDA beat-and-raise AND GOOGL reaching $410+ exit zone. One-way door due to Rule 43.
2. **AVGO buy ($80)** — CONDITIONAL on NVDA beat-and-raise. Thesis #257 explicitly waits for NVDA clarity.
### Portfolio Status
- **Cash**: $6,756 (85%)
- **AMZN**: ~$535 (6.7%), near cost basis, HOLD
- **GOOGL**: ~$435 (5.5%), +4.2% from cost, CONDITIONAL PARTIAL SELL
- **ANET**: ~$199 (2.5%), -11.5% from cost, HOLD (highest risk)
- **Total**: ~$7,921 (-1.2% from peak)
### Key Strategic Insight
This session may mark a macro inflection point. The convergence of Iran deal progress, falling oil, and strong AI catalysts (Google I/O + NVDA earnings) could begin unwinding the rate-shock regime that has defined our strategy for months. However, discipline requires confirmation — not one-day signals. The NVDA earnings tonight will resolve the largest binary risk in our portfolio and determine whether we transition from the defensive 85% cash posture toward measured deployment into AI/semiconductor beneficiaries and potentially small cap rotation plays.