Thesis 146

AVGO — long thesis

Confidence: high · Status: expired

Thesis

AVGO TAKE PROFITS thesis. Stock at $371-375 when thesis was written, now AVGO is at significantly higher levels. The stock has been in the take-profit zone for 3+ weeks. Not held in portfolio — thesis was for monitoring. Should be closed as the opportunity window has passed.

Triggers

Entry: AVGO at ~$323 after DISA contract announcement. Stock marginally lower today despite $970M deal. Wait for 2-3 sessions. If stock stabilizes above $310 and pulls back to $305-325 range, buy $40-50 worth. The DISA contract + AI ASIC thesis provides dual catalysts. Entry zone: $305-325.

Exit: TAKE PROFITS NOW at $370-375. Stock has reached the bottom of the $370-400 take-profit zone. If ceasefire holds and tech momentum continues, may extend to $390-400 but risk increases. Consider partial profit-taking via adding shares to later sell, or simply mark thesis as fulfilled.

Invalidation: Custom ASIC demand decelerates. VMware integration challenges persist. Stock drops more than 15% from entry. Q2 earnings miss guidance. AI networking demand slows. Rules 6/10 signal stability concerns materialize with rapid reversal.