ANET — long thesis
Thesis
ANET position (1 share @ $140 avg). TXN's blowout Q1 earnings (+17.4% today) signal strong semi/data center demand cycle — positive read-through for ANET's hyperscaler networking business. Google Cloud Next catalysts are now priced in. ANET reports Q2 earnings TBD. The position is small but has been a drag. With TXN confirming industrial/data center strength and ANET benefiting from the networking capex cycle, the near-term outlook has improved. However, ANET remains a small position and the thesis was originally for near-term recovery. Evaluate exit at $155+ to recapture capital for higher-conviction positions approaching April 29 mega-cap earnings.
Triggers
Entry: Already held — adopted into thesis management
Exit: Target $155-165 (10-18% upside from $140 avg). Cloud Next catalysts may create near-term tailwind. Exit on any bounce above $155 to recapture capital for higher-conviction theses. Hold through Cloud Next week (April 22-24) for potential re-rating.
Invalidation: ANET drops below $120 (sustained loss exceeding -15% from cost). Hyperscaler networking demand shifts away from ANET to competitors. Q2 earnings miss.