Thesis 196

AVGO — long thesis

Confidence: medium · Status: expired

Thesis

AVGO thesis improves post-hyperscaler earnings. All four hyperscalers raised or maintained massive capex: GOOGL Cloud grew 63%, MSFT Azure 40%, AWS 28% fastest in 15 quarters. META's MTIA Gen 2 chips are co-developed with Broadcom — this is a direct AVGO revenue driver. Google's $460B Cloud backlog also feeds AVGO's custom silicon pipeline. However, AVGO fell with broader semi weakness today — the market is punishing capex spenders rather than their suppliers.

Triggers

Entry: AVGO post-earnings clarity achieved. Hyperscaler capex confirmed/raised everywhere. Enter on pullback to $400-420 range if semi sector stabilizes. META MTIA partnership and Google Cloud backlog are concrete demand signals.

Exit: Target 15-20% upside over 3-6 months. Exit on any hyperscaler capex guidance cuts or custom silicon program cancellations. Take profits if stock rallies 10%+ in under 2 weeks on momentum alone.

Invalidation: AVGO drops 15%+ from entry. TSMC Q2 guidance disappoints badly (below $36B). Meta or Google pull back on AI capex commitments. Broadcom's custom AI chip pipeline loses a major customer.