GOOG — avoid thesis

Confidence: medium · Status: active

Thesis

Google I/O 2026 delivered substantial AI announcements — Gemini 3.5, Gemini Omni video generation, Antigravity 2.0 agentic platform, intelligent eyewear, and a major Search overhaul. These are all positive for Google's AI narrative. However, Rule 43 (churn review) blocks new buys on GOOGL, and GOOG Class C shares carry the same churn risk since it's the same underlying company. Despite the bullish I/O catalysts, the system must respect its own rules. Mark as AVOID until Rule 43 clears (churn review passes). The existing GOOGL position thesis (#233) captures upside from I/O.

Triggers

Entry: Do not enter. Rule 43 churn review blocks new Google buys until round-trip count drops below 6 in trailing 30 days.

Exit: N/A — avoid thesis.

Invalidation: Rule 43 lifts when round-trip count falls below threshold; at that point, re-evaluate as a potential long thesis if I/O catalysts have sustained the AI narrative.

Cited evidence

News