Thesis 40

AMZN — long thesis

Confidence: medium · Status: executed

Thesis

Amazon fell ~8% post-earnings on $200B capex guidance, but fundamentals are strong: Revenue $213.4B (beat), AWS revenue $35.6B (beat, grew 24% — fastest in 13 quarters). The stock recovered from $200 intraday low to close at ~$210, showing buying support. The market is punishing capex aggression but AWS demand supports the spend. This is a contrarian buying opportunity. P/E at 31x with AWS accelerating growth is reasonable. Multiple analysts see this as a buying opportunity.

Triggers

Entry: AMZN closed at ~$210 on Feb 6 after rebounding from a low of $200 intraday. The stock is now in the $200-210 entry zone. Buy a starter position at current levels ($205-210) given AWS 24% growth acceleration. Wait for 1-2 days of stabilization above $205 to add. If it breaks below $195, wait for $185 support.

Exit: Target $230-240 (15-20% upside) over 6-8 weeks as market digests the capex and refocuses on revenue growth. Stop loss at $185.

Invalidation: Further selloff below $185 indicating deeper fundamental concerns. AWS growth deceleration below 15% in next report. Broader market correction dragging tech below Feb lows.