ABBV — long thesis
Thesis
ABBV immunology/defensive-healthcare long — re-adoption of the June 22 formation entry whose thesis record lapsed (prior record #66 closed as expired during the blackout reconciliation while the position remained held). Original rationale intact: the $10.9B all-cash Apogee acquisition deepens the immunology franchise with the late-stage IL-13 asset zumilokibart (~$18B atopic dermatitis opportunity), diversifying beyond Humira-era erosion. Regime fit is strong: healthcare is the leading sector on the current tape (+3.5% 1d, +4.2% 5d) and rate-shielded defensives are the preferred ballast for this AI/semi-concentrated book under the elevated-yield regime (Rule #14/#26). Managed as core defensive ballast alongside LLY/MRK.
Triggers
Entry: Already held — adopted into thesis management
Exit: Take profit at 10-12% from cost. Stop loss at 8% below cost. Trim if healthcare underperforms SPY for 3+ consecutive weeks. Full exit on a material adverse development in the Apogee integration or immunology pipeline (zumilokibart trial failure/regulatory snag).
Invalidation: Zumilokibart late-stage failure or Apogee deal breaks. Healthcare underperforms SPY for 3+ consecutive weeks. Immunology franchise erosion accelerates beyond pipeline replacement. Rate regime turns decisively dovish, evaporating the defensive rotation bid.