Ticker drill-down
CRM
Position, theses, and decisions grouped by ticker.
Position
No open position.
Theses
long · low
Residual CRM position following partial liquidation. The position is a small remnant (~$76 market value) from what was a larger position that was systematically reduced due to Citi PT downgrade, extended enterprise renew…
long · low
CRM is a deeply beaten-down SaaS leader (down 30%+ YTD) with a $25B buyback providing a floor. Q4 FY2026 EPS beat estimates by 25%. However, the stock is under significant pressure: Citigroup lowered PT to $188, Wells Fa…
long · low
Salesforce approaching May 26-27 earnings binary event. CRM is now trading below the $170 invalidation level on hot CPI data driving broad tech selloff and Citigroup lowering its price target. The original thesis of SaaS…
long · medium
Salesforce is down ~30% YTD but near cost basis for this position. The value thesis rests on: (1) a $25B share buyback program providing downside support, (2) Agentforce AI platform as a potential re-rating catalyst with…
long · medium
CRM position held near breakeven. Hyperscaler earnings show strong enterprise AI spending — GOOGL Cloud 63% growth, Azure 40%, AWS 28% — which supports enterprise SaaS demand. Agentforce platform should benefit from the …
long · medium
CRM is showing signs of bottoming. Stock surged +4.7% today to $202.16, the top enterprise software gainer amid a broader market selloff (SPY -1.18%). This is the best single-day performance since earnings. The "SaaSpoca…
Decisions
All decisions →INVALID2026-05-140 sh$168.26[SKIPPED: intent exit_full resolved to 0 shares against held=0] CRM position (0.409 shares, ~$69 at current price of $168.34) is a residual from the May 12-13 exit program. This is…SELL2026-05-130.408601052 sh$166.42EXECUTION WITH CONFIDENCE ADJUSTMENT: Playbook recommends exit_full on thesis #252 (weak conviction, macro constraints). Current position is 0.4086 shares at $166.45 = ~$68 at-risk…SELL2026-05-120.408601052 sh$171.08CRM at $171.41 has breached the $170 invalidation level from thesis #238. Stock is 8% below $186.70 cost basis. REVERSAL JUSTIFICATION: (a) May 11 playbook recommended BUY invest_d…HOLD2026-05-110 sh$176.35CRM at $176.45 is below playbook entry thesis, but a HOLD is prudent here due to compounding binary and macro risks. CRM earnings are May 26-27 (14 days out), creating a definitive…HOLD2026-05-070 sh$187.29CRM at $187.53 is appropriately held ahead of May 26-27 earnings binary event per Rule 27 (macro-risk constraint during earnings windows). Position is small ($153, 1.9% of portfoli…INVALID2026-05-060 sh$179.98[REJECTED: no price available] CRM at $180.07 is now below cost basis ($186.70) with negative momentum and AI disruption narrative headwinds intensifying. May 27 earnings is a bina…INVALID2026-05-050 sh$187.27[REJECTED: no price available] CRM thesis #238 intact. Stock at $187.28 trading at ~20x P/E vs. software average 30x—significant value gap. May 27 earnings (3 weeks out) is next bi…BUY2026-05-050.817202104 sh$186.70CRM re-entry thesis is sound: SaaS sector momentum (TEAM, TWLO beats), CRM down 30% YTD with Agentforce ARR at $800M, $50B buyback, P/E 23x compressed. May 27 earnings (3 weeks) is…HOLD2026-05-040 sh$186.02HOLD pending catalyst clarification. CRM playbook thesis (Action 246) recommends $300 invest to add modestly ahead of May 27 earnings. However, current position is ~3.9% of portfol…SELL2026-05-011.695529533 sh$183.70CRM at $183.82, up ~4% today on TEAM's 28% earnings beat. Position is near breakeven (avg cost $181.19). Thesis #205 exit trigger explicitly documents: 'exit on rally above $195 to…HOLD2026-04-300 sh$176.56CRM thesis #205 (medium confidence) centered on enterprise AI spending. Position: 1.695 shares at $181.19 avg cost, current price $176.70 (-2.5%, near breakeven). Hyperscaler earni…HOLD2026-04-290 sh$181.47CRM position (~2.4% of portfolio, $305.48 market value) is near breakeven at $180 vs $181.19 avg cost (-0.66% unrealized loss). Thesis #205 targets modest exit above $190; current …HOLD2026-04-280 sh$181.51CRM at $180 near cost basis ($181.19 avg), recovered from $163 lows. Position is 2.2% of portfolio (~$305). Thesis #205 highlights Agentforce 200% ARR growth as compelling despite …HOLD2026-04-240 sh$0.00Position held at 1.696 shares (~$301.70, 3.8% of portfolio). No recent outcome data for CRM. Current price $177.87 vs avg cost $181.19 shows slight underwater position. No playbook…BUY2026-04-230.61852361 sh$173.35CRM crashed 8.8% to $173.27 on sympathy selling from NOW's results, not company-specific deterioration. Fundamental backdrop remains strong: $25B buyback + dividend raise announced…HOLD2026-04-220 sh$0.00CRM position at 1.077005923 shares (~$213 at $197.72), approximately 7.2% of portfolio. Playbook conditions require CRM hold above $185 for 2+ days BEFORE initiating add. Current p…BUY2026-04-201.077005923 sh$185.68CRM is new thesis (#205): Salesforce down 30% YTD to $185.71, P/E 23.7x (compressed), Agentforce ARR $800M (+169% YoY), FY27 guidance $45.8-46.2B (+10-11%), median analyst PT $255 …SELL2026-04-020.61399999999999999023003738329862244427204132080078125 sh$186.20CRM position is a complete exit (0.614 shares @ $195.24 cost, current market price unknown but position underwater based on recent_outcomes showing -100% 7d return on 2026-03-24 CR…SELL2026-03-240.5 sh$184.12CRM at $184.53, down 5.8% today, now 5.7% below our $195.45 avg cost. News_signal:unknown:sell has 100% win rate (2/2 sample). SaaS sector in structural repricing amid AI disruptio…HOLD2026-03-230 sh$195.13CRM has 7 consecutive BUY signals and $25B ASR + $800M Agentforce ARR fundamentals. However, recent_outcomes show -100% loss on 2026-03-16 CRM buy and negative returns across 2026-…SKIP2026-03-200.13000000000000000444089209850062616169452667236328125 sh$0.006th consecutive BUY signal with strong fundamentals. Current position 0.984 shares at $195.75 avg. Record $25B accelerated share repurchase executing. Agentforce ARR $800M (169% gr…BUY2026-03-180.1270000000000000017763568394002504646778106689453125 sh$195.16Execute playbook action 113. CRM 6th consecutive BUY validated by $25B accelerated share repurchase floor and Agentforce ARR $800M (169% growth). Structural capital return support …BUY2026-03-170.1499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375 sh$203.44CRM's 5th consecutive BUY signal represents gold-standard watch-first pipeline execution. $25B accelerated share repurchase program commenced, and Agentforce ARR at $800M (+169% Yo…BUY2026-03-160.1519999999999999962252417162744677625596523284912109375 sh$200.00Historic $25B accelerated share repurchase (largest ASR on record) commenced today with ~103M shares upfront delivery. Stock up 2.6% to $197.85. Current position 0.555 shares @ $19…BUY2026-03-130.179999999999999993338661852249060757458209991455078125 sh$193.23Execute playbook action 101. CRM at $192.99 represents validated watch-first upgrade (entered as HOLD, observed 5+ sessions, confirmed for BUY). Current position 0.375 shares at $1…BUY2026-03-120.174999999999999988897769753748434595763683319091796875 sh$198.42CRM showing exceptional relative strength (+2.2%) in broadly weak market. Current position 0.2 shares ($39 value) is minimal. Analyst consensus Buy with $283 PT (42% upside) suppor…BUY2026-03-100.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125 sh$199.22CRM at $194.23 is within thesis 94 entry zone ($185-205). Strong fundamentals: Agentforce ARR $800M (+169%), $50B buyback authorization, FY2026 revenue guidance $41.53B. New cataly…HOLD2026-03-060 sh$201.89CRM within thesis 94 entry zone ($185-205) with recent counter-trend strength (+4.7% one day). Agentforce ARR $800M (+169% YoY) and $50B buyback provide support. Playbook condition…HOLD2026-03-050 sh$204.00CRM at $202 is within thesis 94 entry zone ($185-205) with +4.7% counter-trend strength vs SPY -1.18%. However, the playbook condition 'hold above $195 for 2 sessions' has NOT been…HOLD2026-03-030 sh$202.60SKIP this action. CRM is up +2.6% today and consolidating within thesis 94 entry zone ($185-205). However, with only $215 buying power remaining and multiple higher-priority action…HOLD2026-02-260 sh$203.00CRM beat on all metrics (EPS $3.81 vs $3.04, Agentforce ARR $800M +169% YoY, $50B buyback signals management confidence). Down 5% post-hours despite beat — classic sell-the-news ro…