Trade 105

SELL NVDA

0.43346508 shares at $216.50 on 2026-08-20

Reasoning

Rule #5 partial profit-take: NVDA position is up ~9.5% from cost ($197.94 → $216.63). Binary catalyst (earnings) is confirmed Wed Aug 26 AMC, within the 3-day Rule #5 window. Sector binary affects AMAT, AVGO, MRVL, FN, KEYS. Expectations extraordinarily high (~$92B consensus, +67% YoY) in a semi bear tape (SOXX -22% from high) creates asymmetric risk into print. Take 30% off to lock partial gains, retain core with $185 trail to capture upside if Blackwell demand confirms. One-time action per thesis #1; no prior NVDA buy/sell in past 7 days of playbooks, so no reversal justification required. High confidence on timing and positioning.

Thesis

NVDA core AI-infrastructure long — BINARY CONFIRMED: Q2 FY27 earnings Wednesday Aug 26 after close, the sector bellwether print for the entire AI sleeve (AMAT, AVGO, MRVL, FN, KEYS all correlate). Position is up double-digits from cost while semis remain in a bear tape (SOXX -22% from high) and yields keep pressuring high-multiple tech. Rule #5 applies directly: up ≥5% with a binary catalyst inside the window that affects multiple held positions in the same sector — take a 25-40% partial and retain the core to capture upside if Blackwell-cycle demand confirms (consensus ~$92B revenue, ~67% YoY; expectations are extraordinarily high, which raises the bar for a positive surprise). Structural demand thesis intact (HBM sold out through 2026, physical-AI expansion); the trail floor governs the core through the print. (long, medium confidence)

Outcome

7-day: -2.01% · 30-day: -8.08%

Cited evidence

News

Macro