SELL NVDA
2 shares at $200.69 on 2026-04-17
Reasoning
NVDA at $200.65, approaching $205-210 partial profit zone from thesis #1. Position 7 shares up ~8% from $185.70 entry. TSMC blowout validates thesis, but FOMC binary (11 days) + position up >5% triggers Rule #5 partial profit-take. Sell 2 shares (28.6% of position) to lock gains, retain 5 core shares for continued upside capture.
Thesis
NVDA core AI-infrastructure long — BINARY CONFIRMED: Q2 FY27 earnings Wednesday Aug 26 after close, the sector bellwether print for the entire AI sleeve (AMAT, AVGO, MRVL, FN, KEYS all correlate). Position is up double-digits from cost while semis remain in a bear tape (SOXX -22% from high) and yields keep pressuring high-multiple tech. Rule #5 applies directly: up ≥5% with a binary catalyst inside the window that affects multiple held positions in the same sector — take a 25-40% partial and retain the core to capture upside if Blackwell-cycle demand confirms (consensus ~$92B revenue, ~67% YoY; expectations are extraordinarily high, which raises the bar for a positive surprise). Structural demand thesis intact (HBM sold out through 2026, physical-AI expansion); the trail floor governs the core through the print. (long, medium confidence)
Outcome
7-day: -6.21% · 30-day: -11.92%
Cited evidence
Theses