Trade 23

BUY NVDA

2.020814388 shares at $197.94 on 2026-05-04

Reasoning

EXECUTE. NVDA at $198, pulled back 8.5% from $216 ATH. Hyperscaler capex forecasts risen $80B; $751B expected 2026 (83% YoY growth). 57 Buy ratings. May 20 earnings in 16 days. Pullback from ATH + Iran-driven risk-off creates attractive entry for adding to core AI infrastructure position. Formation-mode sizing ($400, ~0.4% of buying power) respects Rule #1. This was planned in May 3 playbook. Current holding: 5 shares at $185.70 cost; adding ~2 more shares positions us well for earnings catalyst.

Thesis

NVDA core AI-infrastructure long — BINARY CONFIRMED: Q2 FY27 earnings Wednesday Aug 26 after close, the sector bellwether print for the entire AI sleeve (AMAT, AVGO, MRVL, FN, KEYS all correlate). Position is up double-digits from cost while semis remain in a bear tape (SOXX -22% from high) and yields keep pressuring high-multiple tech. Rule #5 applies directly: up ≥5% with a binary catalyst inside the window that affects multiple held positions in the same sector — take a 25-40% partial and retain the core to capture upside if Blackwell-cycle demand confirms (consensus ~$92B revenue, ~67% YoY; expectations are extraordinarily high, which raises the bar for a positive surprise). Structural demand thesis intact (HBM sold out through 2026, physical-AI expansion); the trail floor governs the core through the print. (long, medium confidence)

Outcome

7-day: +14.66% · 30-day: +5.82%

Cited evidence

News

Macro