Trade 26

SELL NVDA

2.808325755 shares at $207.31 on 2026-05-06

Reasoning

NVDA +5.3% to ~$207, approaching $210-215 profit zone. Earnings May 20 in 14 days. AMD blowout validates AI spending but NVDA already priced in high expectations. Take 40% partial (roughly 2.8 shares) to lock gains ahead of earnings binary, retain ~3 shares core position. Medium confidence due to earnings overhang.

Thesis

NVDA core AI-infrastructure long — BINARY CONFIRMED: Q2 FY27 earnings Wednesday Aug 26 after close, the sector bellwether print for the entire AI sleeve (AMAT, AVGO, MRVL, FN, KEYS all correlate). Position is up double-digits from cost while semis remain in a bear tape (SOXX -22% from high) and yields keep pressuring high-multiple tech. Rule #5 applies directly: up ≥5% with a binary catalyst inside the window that affects multiple held positions in the same sector — take a 25-40% partial and retain the core to capture upside if Blackwell-cycle demand confirms (consensus ~$92B revenue, ~67% YoY; expectations are extraordinarily high, which raises the bar for a positive surprise). Structural demand thesis intact (HBM sold out through 2026, physical-AI expansion); the trail floor governs the core through the print. (long, medium confidence)

Outcome

7-day: -10.88% · 30-day: -1.43%

Cited evidence

News

Macro