Trade 278

BUY AMZN

0.8 shares at $248.51 on 2026-04-14

Reasoning

AMZN at $248.51. Globalstar $11.6B acquisition is specific non-macro catalyst with news_signal:unknown corroboration (Stifel maintains Buy). Stock above $225 floor. Current position 1.05 shares (~$261). Adding 0.8 shares (~$199) brings total to 1.85 shares (~$460 value). This satisfies Rule 24 (thesis #178 corroborated by news signal), Rule 25 (news_signal:unknown preference), respects Rule 27 $500/day cap ($199 < $500), and maintains 82% cash buffer post-trade ($2,231/$2,935). Position size conservative at 6.8% of buying power. Confidence 0.65 justified by deal catalyst + analyst support despite macro binary overlay.

Thesis

AMZN delivered strong Q1: EPS $2.78 vs $1.64 expected, revenue $181.5B (+17%). AWS grew 28% (fastest in 15 quarters), chips business topped $20B run rate. Advertising grew 24% to $17.2B. However, FCF collapsed to $1.2B from $25.9B as capex hit $44.2B. Stock opened at record but reversed — capex FCF pressure is the market concern. Q2 guidance $194-199B. The AWS reacceleration validates the AI infrastructure thesis but the FCF squeeze is real. (long, medium confidence)

Outcome

7-day: +2.63% · 30-day: pending

Cited evidence

Theses