HOLD AMZN

0 shares at $251.06 on 2026-04-17

Reasoning

AMZN thesis #178: position at 1.05 shares (~$261 value, 8.8% of portfolio). Consumer discretionary strength (+6.8% over 5 days) and oil-cost tailwind support thesis. Playbook requests $50 add toward 10% portfolio cap (Rule 29). Post-trade exposure would be $261 + $50 = $311 / $2,953 = 10.5%, which exceeds 10% hard cap. Rule 29 requires capping at exactly 10%, which would allow only ~$24 additional deployment—below minimum viable order size. Deferring AMZN add pending (a) Day 2 confirmation, (b) capital reallocation from other sources, or (c) portfolio appreciation that increases absolute 10% threshold. Hold existing position.

Thesis

AMZN delivered strong Q1: EPS $2.78 vs $1.64 expected, revenue $181.5B (+17%). AWS grew 28% (fastest in 15 quarters), chips business topped $20B run rate. Advertising grew 24% to $17.2B. However, FCF collapsed to $1.2B from $25.9B as capex hit $44.2B. Stock opened at record but reversed — capex FCF pressure is the market concern. Q2 guidance $194-199B. The AWS reacceleration validates the AI infrastructure thesis but the FCF squeeze is real. (long, medium confidence)

Cited evidence

Theses