HOLD AMZN

0 shares at $250.66 on 2026-04-21

Reasoning

AMZN position already trimmed today (0.315 shares sold at $251.40). Remaining position is 0.735 shares (~$184 value, ~6.2% of portfolio). Playbook reasoning correctly notes that AMZN earnings are 8 days out (April 29), not imminent. Position is well-sized post-trim and within acceptable limits. No binary event tonight; additional trimming is premature. Rule 27 compliance does not justify further de-risking of an 8-day-out earnings position. HOLD and reassess if AMZN approaches $260 or on April 27 as earnings approach.

Thesis

AMZN delivered strong Q1: EPS $2.78 vs $1.64 expected, revenue $181.5B (+17%). AWS grew 28% (fastest in 15 quarters), chips business topped $20B run rate. Advertising grew 24% to $17.2B. However, FCF collapsed to $1.2B from $25.9B as capex hit $44.2B. Stock opened at record but reversed β€” capex FCF pressure is the market concern. Q2 guidance $194-199B. The AWS reacceleration validates the AI infrastructure thesis but the FCF squeeze is real. (long, medium confidence)

Cited evidence

Theses