HOLD AMZN

0 shares at $255.27 on 2026-04-22

Reasoning

AMZN earnings April 29 triggers Rule 27 binary event constraint. Current position 0.735 shares (~$188 at $255.40), approximately 6.3% of portfolio. While thesis is sound (AWS benefits from hyperscaler AI capex acceleration validated by Cloud Next), the playbook's recommendation to add before earnings week conflicts with Rule 27 defensive posture during earnings-dense week. Defer $100 add decision until April 29 earnings pass and direction confirms for 2+ days. Position is already held; do not initiate new deployment into binary event window.

Thesis

AMZN delivered strong Q1: EPS $2.78 vs $1.64 expected, revenue $181.5B (+17%). AWS grew 28% (fastest in 15 quarters), chips business topped $20B run rate. Advertising grew 24% to $17.2B. However, FCF collapsed to $1.2B from $25.9B as capex hit $44.2B. Stock opened at record but reversed β€” capex FCF pressure is the market concern. Q2 guidance $194-199B. The AWS reacceleration validates the AI infrastructure thesis but the FCF squeeze is real. (long, medium confidence)

Cited evidence

Theses