Trade 296

HOLD AMZN

0 shares at $255.21 on 2026-04-23

Reasoning

AMZN position small (0.735 shares, ~$188 at $256 current price). Approaching April 29 earnings binary. Per Rule #27, maintain conservative posture into mega-cap cluster. Position is small enough to absorb miss without material portfolio damage. Playbook correctly identifies hold rationale. No action warranted.

Thesis

AMZN delivered strong Q1: EPS $2.78 vs $1.64 expected, revenue $181.5B (+17%). AWS grew 28% (fastest in 15 quarters), chips business topped $20B run rate. Advertising grew 24% to $17.2B. However, FCF collapsed to $1.2B from $25.9B as capex hit $44.2B. Stock opened at record but reversed — capex FCF pressure is the market concern. Q2 guidance $194-199B. The AWS reacceleration validates the AI infrastructure thesis but the FCF squeeze is real. (long, medium confidence)

Cited evidence

Theses

• AMZN long — AMZN delivered strong Q1: EPS $2.78 vs $1.64 expected, revenue $181.5B (+17%). AWS grew 28% (fastest in 15 quarters), ch…