Trade 30

SELL NVDA

1.263746589 shares at $213.00 on 2026-05-07

Reasoning

NVDA at $212.99, squarely in $210-215 profit zone from thesis #1. Earnings May 20 is 13 days away. Stock up ~12.7% from $189.22 cost avg. Per Rule #5 (pre-earnings de-risk when up ≥5% and binary catalyst within 3 weeks), execute 30% partial profit trim. This preserves core position for earnings upside while locking in meaningful gains. Second partial trim is appropriate given extended run and approaching catalyst binary.

Thesis

NVDA core AI-infrastructure long — BINARY CONFIRMED: Q2 FY27 earnings Wednesday Aug 26 after close, the sector bellwether print for the entire AI sleeve (AMAT, AVGO, MRVL, FN, KEYS all correlate). Position is up double-digits from cost while semis remain in a bear tape (SOXX -22% from high) and yields keep pressuring high-multiple tech. Rule #5 applies directly: up ≥5% with a binary catalyst inside the window that affects multiple held positions in the same sector — take a 25-40% partial and retain the core to capture upside if Blackwell-cycle demand confirms (consensus ~$92B revenue, ~67% YoY; expectations are extraordinarily high, which raises the bar for a positive surprise). Structural demand thesis intact (HBM sold out through 2026, physical-AI expansion); the trail floor governs the core through the print. (long, medium confidence)

Outcome

7-day: -3.26% · 30-day: +1.99%

Cited evidence

News

Macro