Trade 308

HOLD AMZN

0 shares at $259.42 on 2026-04-28

Reasoning

AMZN reports April 29 AMC tomorrow. Position is 2.4% of portfolio (~$190 at $259.29), well within Rule 29's 10% cap. Thesis #178 expects AWS ~18% growth with OpenAI-on-AWS partnership as upside catalyst, but tempered by OpenAI revenue miss headwind on AI demand narrative. Position sizing allows binary event absorption. Holding for earnings clarity; exit post-earnings if AWS growth guides below 22% per playbook thesis.

Thesis

AMZN delivered strong Q1: EPS $2.78 vs $1.64 expected, revenue $181.5B (+17%). AWS grew 28% (fastest in 15 quarters), chips business topped $20B run rate. Advertising grew 24% to $17.2B. However, FCF collapsed to $1.2B from $25.9B as capex hit $44.2B. Stock opened at record but reversed — capex FCF pressure is the market concern. Q2 guidance $194-199B. The AWS reacceleration validates the AI infrastructure thesis but the FCF squeeze is real. (long, medium confidence)

Cited evidence

Theses

• AMZN long — AMZN delivered strong Q1: EPS $2.78 vs $1.64 expected, revenue $181.5B (+17%). AWS grew 28% (fastest in 15 quarters), ch…