Trade 313

HOLD AMZN

0 shares at $263.23 on 2026-04-29

Reasoning

AMZN reports AMC tonight (binary event). Position is small (~2.4% of portfolio, $193.86 market value). Thesis #178 identifies AWS growth and capex ROI as key metrics; results are not yet available. Rule #27 active: do not exit pre-earnings in binary event window. Rule #31 requires corroborating sell signal; we have none until results land. Playbook reasoning correctly defers exit decision to post-earnings: "Exit tomorrow if AWS decelerates below 22%...If results beat, hold for $280+ target." Hold through earnings tonight, execute sell decision tomorrow if AWS guidance disappoints. Current price $263.48 vs avg cost $231.85 shows unrealized gain; await earnings clarity before position review.

Thesis

AMZN delivered strong Q1: EPS $2.78 vs $1.64 expected, revenue $181.5B (+17%). AWS grew 28% (fastest in 15 quarters), chips business topped $20B run rate. Advertising grew 24% to $17.2B. However, FCF collapsed to $1.2B from $25.9B as capex hit $44.2B. Stock opened at record but reversed — capex FCF pressure is the market concern. Q2 guidance $194-199B. The AWS reacceleration validates the AI infrastructure thesis but the FCF squeeze is real. (long, medium confidence)