Trade 317

HOLD AMZN

0 shares at $264.14 on 2026-04-30

Reasoning

AMZN thesis #178 (medium confidence) supported by Q1 beat: EPS $2.78 vs $1.64 consensus, AWS 28% growth (fastest in 15 quarters), revenue $181.5B. Position 2.4% of portfolio. Playbook notes FCF concern ($1.2B TTM vs $25.9B prior year) from capex squeeze, but AWS reacceleration validates core thesis. Recent outcome (2026-04-21 sell) was -4.8% over 7d, suggesting timing was premature; this hold respects post-earnings volatility. Will let volatility settle before reassessing. No action today; medium confidence + post-earnings churn argues for patience per Rule 27 binary event window (maintain conservative stance until 2-day directional confirmation).

Thesis

AMZN delivered strong Q1: EPS $2.78 vs $1.64 expected, revenue $181.5B (+17%). AWS grew 28% (fastest in 15 quarters), chips business topped $20B run rate. Advertising grew 24% to $17.2B. However, FCF collapsed to $1.2B from $25.9B as capex hit $44.2B. Stock opened at record but reversed — capex FCF pressure is the market concern. Q2 guidance $194-199B. The AWS reacceleration validates the AI infrastructure thesis but the FCF squeeze is real. (long, medium confidence)