Trade 345

BUY AMZN

0.061562068 shares at $269.46 on 2026-05-11

Reasoning

AMZN at $269.33 remains well below thesis exit target of $300-310. Position is currently 2.002 shares (~$539 market value, 6.8% of portfolio). AWS fundamentals intact; recent outage is minor one-off. Adding modestly to 7% target is appropriate. Post-trade exposure will be ~7% of portfolio, within Rule 29's 10% cap. However, Rule 27 macro-risk constraint (US-Iran tensions, geopolitical fragility) caps total new capital deployment at $500/day. Allocating ~$50-60 to AMZN to reach 7% target while preserving deployment capacity for other plays.

Thesis

Amazon remains a core holding with strong AWS, logistics, and advertising fundamentals. However, the hot CPI print (3.8% annual) and evaporating rate cut expectations create a headwind for mega-cap tech valuations broadly. Consumer spending squeeze from inflation (real wages falling 0.5% monthly) could impact e-commerce segment. AWS cloud business remains secular growth driver but stock is vulnerable to multiple compression in a higher-for-longer rate environment. Hold current position but do not add given macro uncertainty. (long, medium confidence)

Outcome

7-day: -1.89% · 30-day: pending

Cited evidence

News

Macro