Trade 350

HOLD AMZN

0 shares at $264.23 on 2026-05-12

Reasoning

HOLD current AMZN position. Playbook action 270 specifies exit_partial_pct with magnitude 0, which is semantically a hold. The April CPI shock (3.8%, highest since May 2023) and rate hike escalation (30% odds, BofA no cuts until H2 2027) argue against adding to tech positions. Real wages falling (-0.5% monthly, -0.3% annual) will compress e-commerce margins and consumer spending on AWS services is at risk. The AWS thesis remains structurally intact (cloud infrastructure, AI cycle), but the macro environment means deploying new capital into growth names into a higher-for-longer rates regime is imprudent. Current position is modest (~$545 at $264.25, ~6.9% of portfolio). Preserving capital and waiting for macro clarity (Rule 27: $500/day deployment cap during rate-path fragility) is the right posture. May 11 playbook recommended add_to_target_pct=7%; today that intent is suspended due to macro invalidation, not thesis invalidation. Reassess after FOMC next week and if VIX stabilizes below 22 with SPY showing directional consensus.

Thesis

Amazon remains a core holding with strong AWS, logistics, and advertising fundamentals. However, the hot CPI print (3.8% annual) and evaporating rate cut expectations create a headwind for mega-cap tech valuations broadly. Consumer spending squeeze from inflation (real wages falling 0.5% monthly) could impact e-commerce segment. AWS cloud business remains secular growth driver but stock is vulnerable to multiple compression in a higher-for-longer rate environment. Hold current position but do not add given macro uncertainty. (long, medium confidence)