Trade 364

HOLD AVGO

0 shares at $418.08 on 2026-05-20

Reasoning

AVGO buy (invest_dollar $80) is CONDITIONAL on NVDA beat-and-raise (Scenario A only). Thesis #257 explicitly gates entry: 'If NVDA beats and raises guidance, enter AVGO the following session in the $405-425 range.' Current price $418.22 is within the range, but the entry condition (NVDA beat-and-raise) has not yet been confirmed. NVDA earnings are AMC tonight. Per risk_notes: 'Do NOT execute the GOOGL sell or AVGO buy if NVDA disappoints or reports inline.' Holding pending NVDA results. If NVDA beats and raises, AVGO entry will be reconsidered post-market tonight or in the next session.

Thesis

Broadcom remains in the entry zone and thesis is intact. Semis rallied broadly today (AMD +7.4%, INTC +6.7%) ahead of NVDA earnings. AVGO benefits from both the AI semiconductor demand (custom ASICs for hyperscalers) and AI networking infrastructure buildout. The thesis specifically calls for waiting until NVDA earnings clarity before entering. Tonight's NVDA result determines next action: if NVDA beats and raises, enter AVGO tomorrow in the current range. If NVDA disappoints, wait for further pullback to $380-400. (long, medium confidence)