Trade 39

SELL NVDA

0.884622613 shares at $227.10 on 2026-05-13

Reasoning

NVDA at $227.06, new ATH, up ~17% from $194 cost basis. Earnings May 20 is 5 trading days away; Rule #5 trim window opens around May 15 (3 trading days before). Position is up >5% with binary catalyst within trigger window. Pre-earnings profit-take of ~30% to de-risk concentration while retaining core position for upside capture. Trump-Xi summit May 14-15 introduces export-control binary risk (Jensen Huang in delegation). Prior decisions on 2026-05-12 and 2026-05-07 were also partial sells (continuation, same direction). Consistent with thesis #1 exit triggers.

Thesis

NVDA core AI-infrastructure long — BINARY CONFIRMED: Q2 FY27 earnings Wednesday Aug 26 after close, the sector bellwether print for the entire AI sleeve (AMAT, AVGO, MRVL, FN, KEYS all correlate). Position is up double-digits from cost while semis remain in a bear tape (SOXX -22% from high) and yields keep pressuring high-multiple tech. Rule #5 applies directly: up ≥5% with a binary catalyst inside the window that affects multiple held positions in the same sector — take a 25-40% partial and retain the core to capture upside if Blackwell-cycle demand confirms (consensus ~$92B revenue, ~67% YoY; expectations are extraordinarily high, which raises the bar for a positive surprise). Structural demand thesis intact (HBM sold out through 2026, physical-AI expansion); the trail floor governs the core through the print. (long, medium confidence)

Outcome

7-day: +4.87% · 30-day: +14.57%

Cited evidence

News

Macro