HOLD LLY
0 shares at $1,018.34 on 2026-05-13
Reasoning
Hold on LLY buy despite playbook request. Rationale: (1) Constraint #4 (macro_timing:fomc_window) is active—Kevin Warsh Fed Chair confirmation happening now; new chair aligned with rate-cut preferences but market is pricing 39% rate-hike odds amid 3.8% CPI and 6% PPI. Portfolio is correctly positioned at 95%+ cash ahead of dual binary events (CLARITY Act vote May 14 at 10:30 AM ET + Trump-Xi substantive meetings Thursday). Initiating a new $350 LLY position now violates the principle of preserving dry powder during uncertain macro windows. (2) Healthcare rotation thesis is sound fundamentally, but timing into a potential Fed tightening cycle and summit outcome uncertainty is suboptimal. (3) Formation-mode sizing ($350 = ~0.35% of buying power) is acceptable under normal conditions, but the risk calendar tomorrow (CLARITY Act vote + summit) takes precedence. Defer this entry until May 15 post-summit clarity or if Fed messaging de-escalates rate-hike odds below 25%. Thesis remains valid; execution timing is the issue.