Trade 42

SELL NVDA

0.619235829 shares at $235.41 on 2026-05-14

Reasoning

Execute playbook action #75. NVDA at $236 (new ATH), up 21% from $197.68 cost basis. Earnings May 20 is 4 trading days away; Rule #5 pre-earnings trim window is active. RSI 77.7 signals overbought. This is a continuation of the May 13 partial sell (30% at $227), not a reversal — same direction, same thesis. Summit Day 2 tomorrow adds binary geopolitical risk per Rule #11. Retain ~50% core position for earnings upside while capturing gains at higher price levels. Formation identity supports disciplined profit-taking into binary events to preserve dry powder.

Thesis

NVDA core AI-infrastructure long — BINARY CONFIRMED: Q2 FY27 earnings Wednesday Aug 26 after close, the sector bellwether print for the entire AI sleeve (AMAT, AVGO, MRVL, FN, KEYS all correlate). Position is up double-digits from cost while semis remain in a bear tape (SOXX -22% from high) and yields keep pressuring high-multiple tech. Rule #5 applies directly: up ≥5% with a binary catalyst inside the window that affects multiple held positions in the same sector — take a 25-40% partial and retain the core to capture upside if Blackwell-cycle demand confirms (consensus ~$92B revenue, ~67% YoY; expectations are extraordinarily high, which raises the bar for a positive surprise). Structural demand thesis intact (HBM sold out through 2026, physical-AI expansion); the trail floor governs the core through the print. (long, medium confidence)

Outcome

7-day: +9.14% · 30-day: +17.20%

Cited evidence

News

Macro