SELL NVDA
3 shares at $196.19 on 2026-04-14
Reasoning
NVDA at $196.14, within striking distance of $197 partial profit target (thesis #1). Position is 10 shares at $185.70 avg cost, currently up ~5.6%. Selling 3 shares locks in ~$31 profit and reduces concentration risk ahead of TSM earnings Thursday pre-market — a critical binary catalyst that could pressure the entire semiconductor complex if disappointing. Maintains 7-share core position to benefit from upside if TSM validates AI demand thesis.
Thesis
NVDA core AI-infrastructure long — BINARY CONFIRMED: Q2 FY27 earnings Wednesday Aug 26 after close, the sector bellwether print for the entire AI sleeve (AMAT, AVGO, MRVL, FN, KEYS all correlate). Position is up double-digits from cost while semis remain in a bear tape (SOXX -22% from high) and yields keep pressuring high-multiple tech. Rule #5 applies directly: up ≥5% with a binary catalyst inside the window that affects multiple held positions in the same sector — take a 25-40% partial and retain the core to capture upside if Blackwell-cycle demand confirms (consensus ~$92B revenue, ~67% YoY; expectations are extraordinarily high, which raises the bar for a positive surprise). Structural demand thesis intact (HBM sold out through 2026, physical-AI expansion); the trail floor governs the core through the print. (long, medium confidence)
Outcome
7-day: -1.78% · 30-day: -8.67%