GOOGL — long thesis
Thesis
GOOGL delivered a blowout Q1: revenue $109.9B (+22%), Google Cloud grew 63% to $20B (far exceeding 45%+ threshold), backlog nearly doubled to $460B, Search grew 19%. Operating income up 30%, margin expanded to 36.1%. Pichai noted they are "compute constrained" — Cloud revenue would have been higher with more capacity. Gemini Enterprise paid MAUs grew 40% QoQ. Waymo surpassed 500K rides/week. This far exceeds thesis targets. Stock surged 8.8% to $381, well above cost basis of $338. The DOJ overhang remains but fundamentals are exceptional.
Triggers
Entry: Already held — adopted into thesis management
Exit: Hold for $400-420 target given blowout Cloud results and compute-constrained demand signal. Take partial profits if stock hits $400 (analyst PT convergence zone). Exit if Q2 Cloud growth decelerates below 50% or if DOJ remedies announce structural breakup. Consider trimming if position exceeds 5% of portfolio.
Invalidation: GOOGL drops below $270 (-16% from cost). DOJ antitrust remedies force structural breakup. Q1 earnings miss with decelerating cloud growth.