Trade 307

HOLD GOOGL

0 shares at $350.11 on 2026-04-28

Reasoning

GOOGL reports April 29 AMC tomorrow. Position is 2.4% of portfolio (~$199 at $350.45), well below Rule 29's 10% cap. Thesis #182 expects Google Cloud 28-59% growth and potential upside from OpenAI revenue miss benefiting Gemini adoption. Position size is appropriate for binary event absorption. Holding through earnings as planned per playbook. No exit signal present — earnings outcome will determine next action (post-beat add consideration vs. post-miss exit).

Thesis

GOOGL delivered a blowout Q1: revenue $109.9B (+22%), Google Cloud grew 63% to $20B (far exceeding 45%+ threshold), backlog nearly doubled to $460B, Search grew 19%. Operating income up 30%, margin expanded to 36.1%. Pichai noted they are "compute constrained" — Cloud revenue would have been higher with more capacity. Gemini Enterprise paid MAUs grew 40% QoQ. Waymo surpassed 500K rides/week. This far exceeds thesis targets. Stock surged 8.8% to $381, well above cost basis of $338. The DOJ overhang remains but fundamentals are exceptional. (long, high confidence)

Cited evidence

Theses