HOLD NVDA

0 shares at $184.81 on 2026-02-16

Reasoning

NVDA thesis (47) is sound long-term, but execution timing is poor given binary event risk. Current position 0.9 shares at $184.30 avg cost is already exposed. Feb 20 Supreme Court tariff ruling and Feb 25 earnings create extreme volatility ahead. Playbook recommends buying at $183 or aggressively below $175, but portfolio is already semiconductor-heavy (6/8 holdings). Conservative approach: hold existing 0.9 shares, defer new buy until post-tariff ruling clarity (Feb 20+). If tariff ruling goes against Trump (70% probability) and NVDA dips to $175-178, then execute aggressive add. Current $1,134 cash should be reserved for post-ruling volatility, not pre-ruling accumulation.

Thesis

NVDA post-earnings thesis intact. Stock at $182.49 today (+3%), bought the dip along with MSFT as investors seek cash-rich tech resilient to war impact. GTC 2026 in March is upcoming catalyst. NVDA backed Lumentum with billions for AI infrastructure scaling. Steve Eisman called NVDA's 73% revenue growth 'incredible.' Tom Lee says March is a turnaround month. Multiple analysts maintain $235-300 PTs. Iran conflict creates near-term volatility but doesn't change AI infrastructure demand thesis. Hold 0.9 shares. (long, high confidence)

Cited evidence

Theses