XLE — long thesis
Thesis
XLE geopolitical hedge position entered under Rule #8 when WTI was above $100. Oil has since crashed to ~$91 WTI as US-Iran deal progress removes geopolitical risk premium. Rule #8 deactivation criteria met — oil below $100 for 4+ consecutive sessions. The hedge thesis is no longer valid. Prior thesis #42 was closed as EXECUTED. This adoption is for orderly exit.
Triggers
Entry: Already held — adopted into thesis management
Exit: Exit fully at market on next open session. Rule #8 deactivation criteria met. Oil below $100 for 4+ sessions. Iran deal progress removes the geopolitical premium that justified this hedge.
Invalidation: If WTI spikes back above $100 on a geopolitical escalation before exit executes, reassess and potentially hold. Otherwise, exit is unconditional.