NVDA — long thesis
Thesis
NVDA post-earnings thesis intact. Stock at $182.49 today (+3%), bought the dip along with MSFT as investors seek cash-rich tech resilient to war impact. GTC 2026 in March is upcoming catalyst. NVDA backed Lumentum with billions for AI infrastructure scaling. Steve Eisman called NVDA's 73% revenue growth 'incredible.' Tom Lee says March is a turnaround month. Multiple analysts maintain $235-300 PTs. Iran conflict creates near-term volatility but doesn't change AI infrastructure demand thesis. Hold 0.9 shares.
Triggers
Entry: Hold current 0.9 shares. Stock at ~$179 post-selloff. If drops to $170-175, add $50 worth. The 2-day post-earnings selloff is creating accumulation opportunity. GTC in March is next catalyst. Do NOT add above $185 given momentum headwinds.
Exit: Target raised: $250-300 based on analyst PTs over 3-6 months. Take partial profits at $230. Stop loss at $165. If narrative shift becomes fundamental (hyperscaler capex cuts), reassess.
Invalidation: Earnings miss on Feb 25 with lowered guidance. Revenue below $63B. Gross margins contracting below 70%. Hyperscaler capex cuts announced. Major Blackwell/Rubin production delays. China export restrictions tightening further. Break below $165 on volume.