HOLD NVDA

0 shares at $184.81 on 2026-02-16

Reasoning

NVDA thesis remains sound (39% upside to $254 PT, earnings Feb 25 catalyst, Rubin architecture), but execution timing is critical given binary event risk this week. Supreme Court tariff ruling Feb 20 creates unpredictable volatility immediately before earnings Feb 25. Our existing 0.9 share position is already substantial relative to portfolio size (44% of equity value in semiconductors total). Adding now risks catching a tariff-driven pullback; better to wait for post-ruling stabilization or earnings dip below $175 as outlined in thesis. Portfolio concentration already extreme (6 of 8 holdings semiconductor/AI-exposed). Preserve $979.53 buying power for Feb 20 volatility and post-ruling opportunities.

Thesis

NVDA post-earnings thesis intact. Stock at $182.49 today (+3%), bought the dip along with MSFT as investors seek cash-rich tech resilient to war impact. GTC 2026 in March is upcoming catalyst. NVDA backed Lumentum with billions for AI infrastructure scaling. Steve Eisman called NVDA's 73% revenue growth 'incredible.' Tom Lee says March is a turnaround month. Multiple analysts maintain $235-300 PTs. Iran conflict creates near-term volatility but doesn't change AI infrastructure demand thesis. Hold 0.9 shares. (long, high confidence)

Cited evidence

Theses