Trade 148

HOLD NVDA

0 shares at $187.29 on 2026-02-18

Reasoning

NVDA at ~$190, above our $184.30 avg cost (0.9 shares). Playbook explicitly states: 'Do NOT add before Feb 25 earnings — binary risk.' NVDA earnings in 7 days is the single largest portfolio catalyst. Meta chip deal expansion is bullish, but holding current 0.9 shares pending earnings announcement is prudent. Rangebound $175-192 for months. A beat could push to $220+; a miss to $165. Defer $100 add-on decision to post-earnings guidance commentary. Maximum conviction decision point Feb 25 after-hours.

Thesis

NVDA post-earnings thesis intact. Stock at $182.49 today (+3%), bought the dip along with MSFT as investors seek cash-rich tech resilient to war impact. GTC 2026 in March is upcoming catalyst. NVDA backed Lumentum with billions for AI infrastructure scaling. Steve Eisman called NVDA's 73% revenue growth 'incredible.' Tom Lee says March is a turnaround month. Multiple analysts maintain $235-300 PTs. Iran conflict creates near-term volatility but doesn't change AI infrastructure demand thesis. Hold 0.9 shares. (long, high confidence)

Cited evidence

Theses