Trade 158

HOLD NVDA

0 shares at $190.47 on 2026-02-23

Reasoning

HOLD existing 0.9 shares through Wednesday earnings. Do NOT add pre-earnings per playbook instruction. Stock at $187.90 is above $184.30 avg cost (+1.95% unrealized gain). Earnings catalyst (Wed) is the single most important event for portfolio. Thesis conditional: only add $50 post-earnings if NVDA beats (EPS >$1.60, revenue >$66B) AND guides strong for FY2027/Rubin, pulling back from reaction. If misses or guides weak, reassess $165 stop. Risk is high given portfolio's 60% tech/semi concentration.

Thesis

NVDA post-earnings thesis intact. Stock at $182.49 today (+3%), bought the dip along with MSFT as investors seek cash-rich tech resilient to war impact. GTC 2026 in March is upcoming catalyst. NVDA backed Lumentum with billions for AI infrastructure scaling. Steve Eisman called NVDA's 73% revenue growth 'incredible.' Tom Lee says March is a turnaround month. Multiple analysts maintain $235-300 PTs. Iran conflict creates near-term volatility but doesn't change AI infrastructure demand thesis. Hold 0.9 shares. (long, high confidence)

Cited evidence

Theses