HOLD NVDA
0 shares at $192.75 on 2026-02-24
Reasoning
HOLD existing 0.9 shares through tomorrow's earnings (Feb 25 after close). Playbook explicitly instructs NOT to add pre-earnings. Current position is 0.9 shares at $184.30 avg cost. Tomorrow's earnings are THE critical event for our semiconductor-heavy portfolio (NVDA, AVGO, TSM, ANET comprise ~65% of holdings). Consensus EPS $1.53, revenue $65.7B. AMD-Meta deal validates AI capex acceleration. Twelve consecutive quarterly beats support upside skew. However, miss risk is material given portfolio concentration. Conservative approach: hold existing position, avoid pre-earnings addition given limited buying power ($70 cash) and binary event risk. Plan post-earnings action after results and Rubin guidance clarity. If beat confirmed with strong guidance, consider $30-40 add on any pullback consolidation. If miss, immediately reassess semiconductor thesis.