Trade 168

HOLD NVDA

0 shares at $197.11 on 2026-02-25

Reasoning

HOLD existing 0.9 shares through tonight's earnings report. Playbook correctly instructs: DO NOT add pre-earnings. NVDA earnings at market close tonight is a binary event with ~12% implied move. Current consensus EPS $1.53, revenue $65.7B (+67% YoY). Critical focus: gross margins guidance, Blackwell/Rubin roadmap clarity, FY27 guidance. Stock at ~$193 and rallying on market optimism. If earnings BEAT with strong guidance, conditional add of $50-75 on post-consolidation pullback to $188-190 zone is authorized for tomorrow/Thursday. If DISAPPOINT and stock falls to $184-186 support, reassess hold vs. exit based on guidance revision magnitude. Current position mark-to-market favorable; protecting it through tonight is prudent. Risk note correctly flags NVDA miss cascading to AVGO, TSM, ANET, MU.

Thesis

NVDA post-earnings thesis intact. Stock at $182.49 today (+3%), bought the dip along with MSFT as investors seek cash-rich tech resilient to war impact. GTC 2026 in March is upcoming catalyst. NVDA backed Lumentum with billions for AI infrastructure scaling. Steve Eisman called NVDA's 73% revenue growth 'incredible.' Tom Lee says March is a turnaround month. Multiple analysts maintain $235-300 PTs. Iran conflict creates near-term volatility but doesn't change AI infrastructure demand thesis. Hold 0.9 shares. (long, high confidence)

Cited evidence

Theses