Ticker drill-down
AMZN
Position, theses, and decisions grouped by ticker.
Position
Shares
2.064367462
Avg cost
$257.78
Theses
long · medium
Amazon continues to hold near cost basis. The broad market rallied today (SPY +0.91%, QQQ +1.39%) with consumer discretionary leading (+2.4%). NVDA earnings tonight are the key catalyst — Amazon is both an AI infrastruct…
long · medium
Amazon remains a core holding with strong AWS, logistics, and advertising fundamentals. However, the hot CPI print (3.8% annual) and evaporating rate cut expectations create a headwind for mega-cap tech valuations broadl…
long · medium
AMZN delivered strong Q1: EPS $2.78 vs $1.64 expected, revenue $181.5B (+17%). AWS grew 28% (fastest in 15 quarters), chips business topped $20B run rate. Advertising grew 24% to $17.2B. However, FCF collapsed to $1.2B f…
long · medium
Amazon fell ~8% post-earnings on $200B capex guidance, but fundamentals are strong: Revenue $213.4B (beat), AWS revenue $35.6B (beat, grew 24% — fastest in 13 quarters). The stock recovered from $200 intraday low to clos…
Decisions
All decisions →HOLD2026-05-190 sh$258.92NVDA earnings binary event on May 20 (tomorrow, AMC) creates rule-gated hold. Rule 27 macro_risk constraint active: fragile macro-resolution window (NVDA binary + rate-shock regime…HOLD2026-05-180 sh$264.62AMZN position (2.06 shares, $547.23 market value, 6.9% of portfolio) is held through NVDA earnings on May 20 per macro risk Rule 27. Portfolio is 85% cash and well-positioned for p…HOLD2026-05-150 sh$262.87AMZN is held through NVDA earnings (May 20) per explicit risk guidance. The stock is a core AI-adjacent position with an intact thesis. Current price $262.88 is above cost basis ($…HOLD2026-05-120 sh$264.23HOLD current AMZN position. Playbook action 270 specifies exit_partial_pct with magnitude 0, which is semantically a hold. The April CPI shock (3.8%, highest since May 2023) and ra…BUY2026-05-110.061562068 sh$269.46AMZN at $269.33 remains well below thesis exit target of $300-310. Position is currently 2.002 shares (~$539 market value, 6.8% of portfolio). AWS fundamentals intact; recent outag…HOLD2026-05-070 sh$271.81AMZN position ($471 market value, 5.9% of portfolio) is held per thesis #232. Current price $271.83 remains below consensus targets in the $300-310 range. Triple-play earnings conf…BUY2026-05-060.163280524 sh$276.65AMZN at $278.82 is a core holding with strong AI/cloud and logistics fundamentals intact post-Q1 earnings. Current position is 1.84 shares (~$512.54, 6.4% of portfolio). Adding to …HOLD2026-05-050 sh$273.88AMZN thesis #232 supported by fresh signals (earnings triple play, $1.3T logistics opportunity). Current position is ~1.84 shares (~$505, ~6.3% of portfolio). Rule 29 10% single-sy…INVALID2026-05-050 sh$274.00[SKIPPED: intent add_to_target_pct resolved to 0 shares against held=1.83952487] AMZN position is 1.84 shares (~$503, ~6.3% of portfolio). Target is 3% additional allocation above …BUY2026-05-041.10452487 sh$271.60AMZN is at all-time highs with strong Q1 fundamentals ($181.5B revenue, +15% YoY), robust catalysts (Supply Chain Services, AWS $150B run rate, Pentagon AI deal), and analyst conse…HOLD2026-04-300 sh$264.14AMZN thesis #178 (medium confidence) supported by Q1 beat: EPS $2.78 vs $1.64 consensus, AWS 28% growth (fastest in 15 quarters), revenue $181.5B. Position 2.4% of portfolio. Playb…HOLD2026-04-290 sh$263.23AMZN reports AMC tonight (binary event). Position is small (~2.4% of portfolio, $193.86 market value). Thesis #178 identifies AWS growth and capex ROI as key metrics; results are n…HOLD2026-04-280 sh$259.42AMZN reports April 29 AMC tomorrow. Position is 2.4% of portfolio (~$190 at $259.29), well within Rule 29's 10% cap. Thesis #178 expects AWS ~18% growth with OpenAI-on-AWS partners…HOLD2026-04-270 sh$261.31Playbook action 223 is a hold disguised as sell-flag. AMZN position is small (2.4% of portfolio), recent 7d outcome was +2.6% on April 14 buy. Today's MSFT-OpenAI deal restructurin…HOLD2026-04-240 sh$263.89Position held. AMZN is 2.4% of portfolio at current price. Recent buy on 2026-04-09 and 2026-04-14 both showed positive 7d outcomes (+7.0% and +2.6% respectively). No playbook avai…HOLD2026-04-230 sh$255.21AMZN position small (0.735 shares, ~$188 at $256 current price). Approaching April 29 earnings binary. Per Rule #27, maintain conservative posture into mega-cap cluster. Position i…HOLD2026-04-220 sh$255.27AMZN earnings April 29 triggers Rule 27 binary event constraint. Current position 0.735 shares (~$188 at $255.40), approximately 6.3% of portfolio. While thesis is sound (AWS benef…HOLD2026-04-210 sh$250.66AMZN position already trimmed today (0.315 shares sold at $251.40). Remaining position is 0.735 shares (~$184 value, ~6.2% of portfolio). Playbook reasoning correctly notes that AM…SELL2026-04-210.315 sh$251.40AMZN earnings binary April 29 creates material downside risk per Rule 27. Position is +5.1% gain at current price $251.41 vs avg $231.85. Recent analyst upgrades (BofA $298, KeyBan…HOLD2026-04-170 sh$251.06AMZN thesis #178: position at 1.05 shares (~$261 value, 8.8% of portfolio). Consumer discretionary strength (+6.8% over 5 days) and oil-cost tailwind support thesis. Playbook reque…BUY2026-04-140.8 sh$248.51AMZN at $248.51. Globalstar $11.6B acquisition is specific non-macro catalyst with news_signal:unknown corroboration (Stifel maintains Buy). Stock above $225 floor. Current positio…BUY2026-04-091.05 sh$231.85AMZN news_signal:unknown confluence (ceasefire + Jassy letter + Masters deal + 20%+ analyst consensus upside) represents our highest-confidence signal type at 66.7% win rate. Howev…SELL2026-04-010.299999999999999988897769753748434595763683319091796875 sh$210.51AMZN position is minimal (0.3 shares @ $208.53, current $210.56 = ~$63 notional value). While IRGC cyber threats against US tech are likely noise, the position is too small to just…HOLD2026-03-310.299999999999999988897769753748434595763683319091796875 sh$209.05No playbook available. Holding existing position. Recent outcomes show systematic losses across buy decisions (7 consecutive -100% outcomes on buys). High caution warranted.SELL2026-03-270.299999999999999988897769753748434595763683319091796875 sh$199.71AMZN down 3.8% today to $199.72 (worst today). Facing dual headwinds: tech selloff (-4.0% 5d) + consumer spending weakness (Carnival cut guidance, $4 gas hurting discretionary). AI…HOLD2026-02-110.59999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375 sh$204.33HOLD2026-02-110 sh$204.24HOLD2026-02-110.59999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375 sh$204.12HOLD2026-02-100.59999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375 sh$207.85SKIP2026-02-071 sh$0.00AMZN at ~$205-210 is in the ideal $195-205 entry zone. Post-earnings selloff (-8%) on $200B capex is creating contrarian opportunity. AWS growth of 24% (fastest in 13 quarters) val…